Thursday 001 Manchester United vs Bilbao! Can Manchester United strangle Biba hope to turn the tables?

1. Promotion balance: strategic game under the three-goal gap

1. Manchester United's "psychological safety zone"

- The 3-0 away victory in the first leg has given the Red Devils absolute initiative. They only need to remain unbeaten in the second leg to advance, and even 0-0 can advance with the advantage of away goals.

- Tactical confidence: Manchester United's home possession rate is as high as 73%, and the midfield pass success rate is 86%. This "slow-tempo strangle" tactic has suffocated Brentford and other teams.

2. Biba's "Arctic Circle Breakout"

- Need to win 3 goals or 1-0 and drag into overtime, but the away win rate is only 10%, and when he fell behind in the first round, he was sent off and exposed his weakness in the pressure resistance.

- Fatal injuries: He has 4 clean sheets of opponents in his last 5 away games, but he has only averaged 9.7 shots per game on the offensive end, with a positive shot rate of 28% - it may be difficult to break the deadlock against Manchester United's steel defense line.

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2. Tactical microscope: The "air hegemony" of the Red Devils vs. Basque iron wall

dimensions Manchester United Athletic Bilbao

core tactics 4231 ball control system, cross from the wing + set ball 433 defensive counterattack, high-position press + fast conversion

offensive killing moves Hoylen headed (6 goals from the Europa League), B Fee directly passed Berenguel cut (3.2 breakthroughs per game), Nico's double wings

defensive weaknesses Mazravi returns to defense slowly, and there are hidden dangers in high-altitude ball defense. The central defender turns slowly (Yerai turns 1.2 seconds/time)

data comparison set ball score rate 28% (Europa League 2) Setting ball conceded 35% (4 goals conceded in the last 3 games)

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3. Lineup secret battle: Injured barracks and rotation passwords

- Manchester United's "dual-core drive"

- Hoylen: The first leg header + create a point, the success rate of high-altitude top-square top is 71%. Facing Biba's 1.93-meter central defender Solbaken may become a weapon.

- B Fee: Scored twice in the first leg, averaging 3.8 key passes per game, but you need to be wary of Biba's midfielder De Marcos' close entanglement.

- Biba's "remnant line breakout"

- Berenguel: The only forward core averages 1 goal per game, but needs to undertake more organizational tasks in this game, and may be targeted by Casemiro.

- Defensive crisis: The main central defender Martinez is suspended, and substitute Hoybratten is slow to turn, and may be targeted by Manchester United winger group.

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4. Data mist: "ball control trap" behind the handicap

- Metaphysical warning: Manchester United has lost only 1 time in the last five games with a home ball possession rate of more than 70% (lost to Manchester City in January 2024).

- Handicap mystery: Manchester United gave 0.25 goals in the Asian initial set and retreated to 0.5 goals on the spot. The dealer hinted at the "Red Devils' big victory."

- Large and small goals: 2.5 goals, small goals, low water, Biba's total goals in 7 away games in the last 10 games were ≤2. Although Manchester United's defense is poor, the opponent's offense is weaker.

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5. Winning and losing hands: three decisive moments

1. The 20-35th minute high pressure period: Manchester United is used to attacking fiercely 15 minutes before the first half, and if Biba fails to withstand it may collapse (refer to the 3-goal rhythm in the first leg).

2. Settings offense and defense: Manchester United scored 14 goals through set pieces this season (3rd in the Premier League), and Biba scored a goal rate of 35%.

3. Substitute surprises: If Manchester United youth training young player Menu appears, his success rate of crossing against the feet may become the key to breaking the deadlock (training match data: 87% left foot).

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6. Prophetic moment: Old Trafford's three scripts

1. Promotion with a zero penalty (probability 55%)

- Plot: Manchester United won 1-0, Hoylen headed the ball, and Biba only shot twice in the game.

- Trigger condition: Biba failed to swing the bus, Manchester United's cross from the wing improved accuracy.

2. Loss of a crazy attack (probability 30%)

- Plot: Manchester United 2-1, Biba succeeded in counterattack, and advanced 5-1 in the total score.

- Leng Knowledge: Biba's final reversal probability is as high as 80%.

3. Black three minutes (probability 15%)

- Plot: Manchester United lost 0-2, Biba was upset with corner kick tactics, and the total score was 3-2.

- Data support: Biba scored 29% of corner kick goals this season (No. 1 in La Liga).

Recommendation Manchester United wins

The picture is from the Internet

Age reference 10 21