10.9 The English Derby is at Wembley tonight: The Three Lions are strong at home, while the Red Dragons are plagued by injuries

Comparison of the recent status and strength of the two teams

England is currently in great shape, ranking 3rd in the world. The entire team is worth more than 1.2 billion euros. It can be called a luxurious team of the golden generation. In the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, England performed strongly, ranking first in Group K with an absolute advantage of winning 5 games and accumulating 15 points, scoring 12 goals and conceding only 3 goals.

In the two World Cup preliminaries in September, they defeated Andorra 2-0 at home and swept Serbia 5-0 away from home, showing strong dominance on both offense and defense.

Wales is ranked third in Group J of the World Preliminaries with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 10 points. It is only 1 point away from the top of the list, North Macedonia, and still retains the hope of hitting the top spot in the group.

The team's recent offensive and defensive performance has been polarizing: the offensive end is strong, scoring 11 goals in 5 games in the World Cup preliminaries, averaging more than 2 goals per game; but the defensive end lacks stability, losing to Canada 0-1 in the last friendly match, exposing the loopholes in the defense when facing high-intensity pressing.

Tactical Layout and Lineup Analysis

The young talents under England coach Southgate usually play in a 4-3-3 flexible formation, creating local advantages through the adduction of full-backs. Although it lacks core players such as Bellingham and Foden, the team has a significant home court advantage.

In the past three home games, they averaged 15.2 shots per game, 42.5 touches of the ball in the penalty area, and a high-pressure press success rate of 58%.

Saka's breakthrough success rate this season is 68%, and his cross success rate is 41%. He will become a key breakthrough on the wing. The interception success rate of his opponent, Wales' main fullback Connor Roberts, is only 32%. This matchup advantage will become an important starting point for England's offense.

Mount and Wilson on the bench can provide immediate combat power and further strengthen the depth of the lineup.

Wales is suffering from injuries. Ramsey, Daniel James and other main players are absent, and the midfield creativity and interception ability are greatly reduced. Coach Page has recently tended to use a 3-4-2-1 defensive counterattack system or a 5-4-1 intensive defense, trying to rely on solid defense to find counterattack opportunities.

The team averaged 4.8 turnovers per game when facing high pressure on the road, and 30% of the turnovers occurred in their own core area, which easily gave England a chance to counterattack.

Comparison of key players

Harry Kane is undoubtedly the focus of this game. The England captain is in excellent form and has scored 11 goals in 6 appearances for Bayern Munich this season.

He has a scoring efficiency of 83% in national team games. If he passes the physical fitness test, he will be the favorite to open the scoring.

For Wales, despite Bell going through a painful period after his retirement, the team still has a forward partnership of Brennan Johnson and Kiefer Moore, which combines speed and height.

Ramsey's return from injury is an important addition to the creativity and experience of the Welsh midfielder.

Historical confrontations and psychological advantages

Historical confrontation data is completely biased towards England. They have won all 7 meetings this century and won 8 out of the past 10 times, giving them an absolute crushing advantage. In the past five duels, England won three times by at least a two-goal advantage.

The last time Wales scored against England was back in the 2-1 defeat at the 2016 European Cup, and their last victory over England was in the 1984 home championship.

Game trends and score predictions

Based on analysis from all parties, England is expected to break the deadlock in the second half and seal the victory. Especially in the 60th-75th minute, when the Welsh defense is in decline, the gap may be broken by substitutes such as Foden and Grealish.

Wales needs to be distracted by the tough World Cup qualifying match against Belgium in four days, and there are doubts about its commitment to the friendly match. In the past 11 friendly matches, they have 1 draw and 10 losses in away games and have not scored in 10 consecutive games. This data is extremely unfavorable.

Most professional predictions favor England's victory.

Despite the apparent disparity in strength in this England derby, football matches are never just a contest of paper strength. England has an overall advantage in home field advantage, lineup depth and historical record, while Wales is likely to respond with a solid defense and counterattack strategy.

However, given Wales' key injuries and the scattered focus on the upcoming World Cup qualifiers, the odds are high that England can pull off a win at Wembley and demonstrate their dominance in the process.

No matter what the outcome is, this British Civil War will definitely attract the attention of fans all over the world. Let us look forward to the wonderful performance of this game!