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1-3 is close to being eliminated, with a chance of winning the championship of 0! The NBA is overrated by the Big Three teams, and it is time to knock it down and rebuild it
4:00pm, 30 April 2025【Basketball】
The NBA playoffs have started for more than a week this season, and there are three differences compared to the past few years. First, the confrontation is becoming more and more intense, and the core of each team is easily targeted. From Morant to Butler, including the Celtic leader Tatum, they all have troubles. After jumping into the air, their physical condition is decided by others. Sometimes, in order to win, role players can do anything. Secondly, to be honest, this season's playoffs are not fierce. The West's No. 1 Thunder eliminated the Grizzlies 4-0 early to advance; the East's No. 1 Cavaliers also swept the Heat 4-0. In addition, the Celtics, Knicks and Pacers got the match point, and it was only a matter of time before the advancement was advanced. The Timberwolves in the West are the same as the Warriors, with a high probability of being below the score.
And the last point is the change in the dominance of the star. Many stars are fully in the playoffs, but they just can't win. A typical example is Antetokounmpo, who averaged 33.8 points, 14.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. With Lillard's Achilles tendon cleavage, the Bucks are basically over this season. Antetokounmpo is likely to leave this summer. Whether it is self-responsible or the team is taking the initiative, there is no difference. Including Magic's boss Kairo, who averaged 32 points per game, but there was only one little Wagner around him as a helper, and the others had no ability to score. Only in the playoffs can the greatest value of the team be demonstrated. But there is another team that is surprising, that is the Lakers. The Timberwolves were lagging behind the Timberwolves 1-3. Judging from the predictions given by the US media "BR", the probability of the Lakers advancing is only 7.1%, and the probability of winning the championship is 0!
Before the playoffs started, media around the world were generally optimistic that the three giants Doncic + James + Reeves could easily defeat the Timberwolves, all ten experts including ESPN supported the Lakers to advance, but the probability of the Lakers to advance in this set of series initially given by "BR" was only 29% possible! At that time, many fans expressed their confusion, thinking that this was a random prediction. So are the Lakers really that strong? Entering the playoffs, Doncic averaged 30.8 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists per game, James averaged 26.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game, Reeves averaged 17 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4 assists per game, which is basically a normal state of performance, but the Lakers' overall defensive efficiency is second to the last, and the offensive efficiency and average score per game are about tenth in the league, with only 16 teams in total!
Los Angeles Media and ESPN gradually point the gun at Doncic. In the words of famous reporter Zach Lovi, Doncic's defense is as bad as ever, and it even makes people laugh. He can't help the team, and the Lakers could have done better. In addition, Los Angeles media also expressed the same view. In the words of column reporter Reed, looking back, the Lakers may suffer a loss in the deal between Davis and Doncic. I don’t know whether the Lakers suffer or not, but I know that the data will not lie. Let’s look at the playoff contribution value directly! In this round of series, James was present, the Lakers lost 9.7 points in a hundred rounds, and when they were not present, the Lakers won 1.8 points in a hundred rounds, and the On-Off value is -11.5! It should be emphasized that when James is on the court, the Lakers have the lowest defensive efficiency: 124.2.
Reeves was present, the Lakers lost 9.5 points in a hundred rounds, and when they were not present, the Lakers had a net advantage of 0 points in a hundred rounds, and the On-Off value was -9.5. When Doncic was on the court, the Lakers lost 6.0 points in a hundred rounds, and when they were not on the court, the Lakers lost 20.5 points in a hundred rounds, and Doncic's On-Off value is +14.5. Doncic's data is particularly interesting. He can provide the Lakers with a difference of 100 rounds +25 on the offensive end, but the difference that drags down the team on the defensive end is -10.5. This shows that Doncic is present, and he can make up for his already insufficient defense through offense. Why did the Lakers trade Doncic? Didn’t you just want him to be the face of the Lakers in the next 10 years? Do you expect Doncic to defend with all his strength? This should be what other role players should do! Doncic's On-Off value is already the highest in the Lakers!
In fact, the Lakers Big Three are definitely overrated. At the age of 40, James can still play gorgeous data, but it is still a cliché. Can he help the team win? Reeves has a strong rise this season, and once averaged 25 points per game after March, but he is also the kind of defensive shortcomings and needs to be protected. As the cornerstone of the team's future, Doncic deserves treatment that others will become his helper, but this Lakers are far from meeting this condition and take the initiative to stop Ma Wei's trade. Doncic doesn't even have a teammate who can play pick-and-roll. The three giants on the defensive end all need the assistance of teammates, especially when they play in the fourth quarter, when James is exhausted, he will gradually become an outsider, including some low-level mistakes.
Simply put, the Lakers' management is still in a state of being both at the same time, enjoying the huge traffic gain brought by the two super giants James and Doncic, but the team does not have real competitiveness. The best state is that Doncic has a center around him who can stabilize pick-and-roll and eat cakes, and a top 3D that can rush up and drive the rhythm! It's only a matter of time before the Lakers are eliminated, and the team should have rebuilded long ago! The key is the system that Doncic needs. Reeves is fine. After all, he still has room for plasticity and can hold the ball, but James will become particularly embarrassed. What’s important is that James still has an annual salary of 49 million, which is of course worth it, but if the Lakers really come up with results, they must make some choices.
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