Sunday 014 European Youth Championship Czech U21 VS Germany U21 score prediction

1. Team strength and recent status

1. The overall strength of the Czech U21 (home team)

: The net worth is about 45 million euros, significantly lower than the German U21 (257 million euros). The offensive end relies on core striker Daniel Fella (scoring against England in the first game), but the positional battle efficiency is only 18%, and the team cooperation is weak.

Recent status: Losing England U21 1-3 in the first game, exposing defensive loopholes (xG 1.53 vs 1 goal); 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the last 10 games, but the offense is dull when facing a strong team.

Key shortcomings: poor defense ability (England scored 3 goals in the first game), the full-back's return speed was slow, and the success rate of high-altitude top-square-top was only 35%.

2. German U21 (visit team)

Overall strength: mature youth training system, smooth pass control (average ball control rate of 62% per game in the qualifiers), Nick Waltermede, the striker, wore a hat in the first game, midfielder Rocco Retz's pass success rate + 2.3 key passes, balanced offense and defense.

Recent status: Sweeping Slovenia U21 3-0 in the first game, unbeaten in 8 wins and 2 draws in the last 10 games, averaging 2.4 goals per game; scoring all goals in the last 5 games and 4 clean sheets, and the defense is stable (conceding 0.8 goals per game).

Tactical advantages: high-pressing + high-end penetration and efficient side-middle penetration, set-piece scoring rate 29%, but away defense fluctuated slightly (40% conceded goals in the last 5 away games).

2. Analysis of key factors for victory and loss

1. Although the German U21's offensive suppression force

Although Germany's first game possession rate was only 39%, it scored 3 goals in 8 shots, with extremely high ending efficiency. Walter Mede's forward line (combined with 9 goals in the last 5 games) is paired with midfield core Rocco Reitz (92% pass success rate), and can tear the defense through rapid penetration and high-pressure.

The Czech defense line was broken by England three times in the first game. The back-to-back from the side was slow and the central defender had a clear loophole in the fight against weak, and it may be difficult to resist the multi-level attack in the face of Germany.

2. Czech counterattack and set-piece opportunities

Czech Republic is good at rapid conversions, and Fila's speed is the key to counterattack. However, the team's positional battle scoring efficiency is only 18%, and the midfield interception success rate is low (58%), making it difficult to compete with the German pass control system. In the historical confrontation, the Czech Republic used the German defense line to make mistakes (such as the 2-1 final victory in 2023), but German goalkeeper Artubolu was unstable at that time. Now the German defense is led by Rosenfeld, and he has conceded only 1 goal in the last three games, and his stability has improved.

3. Injury and tactical adjustments

Czech Republic: Defender Harustak is absent due to injury, and his defense is damaged.

Germany: Defender Jelic is absent, but the lineup is thick enough, and Di Salvo may continue the 4-2-3-1 high-pressure formation in the first game.

3. Results prediction

Winning tendency: Germany's U21 win (probability 75%)

Reasons: strength crushing (value/status), offense and defense balance, and front line efficiency crushing the Czech Republic.

Score reference

Most likely: Germany 2-0 (0-1 in the halftime)

Unpopularity: If the Czech counterattack is successful, it may tie 1-1 (probability 20%).

Other prediction items: Total goals ≤2.5 goals (mainly small goals in Germany's last 7 encounters); corner kicks >8.5 (Germany's first match of 5 corner kicks, Czech Republic 4).

4. Betting strategy suggestions

Stable choice: Germany lets 1 goal win (Asian handicap)

High risk and high return: Walter Mede scored another goal (had a hat-trick in the first game in a hot state).