[Observation] 28 teams have entered the World Cup, who will get the remaining spots?

Original by Sports Weekly All Media

With the end of the international match day in October, 28 participating teams for the 2026 World Cup have been confirmed, but 20 seats are still to be decided. So, which teams are just one step away from qualifying? What will happen in the legendary playoffs that are so dangerous? Let us take a staged inventory here.

Europe

There are still two rounds of the European group stage of the World Cup qualifiers, and the final results will not be available until mid-November. Currently, there is only one qualifying team, England, but many powerful teams have indeed taken the initiative completely in their own hands. Among the 11 top teams in the group except England, Portugal in Group F leads the second place in the same group by the most, by as many as 5 points. This almost means that the team only needs 1 point in the remaining two rounds to qualify directly - because the second-ranked Hungary also has 6 fewer goals in goal difference.

Switzerland, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Norway and Croatia are all 3 points ahead of the second place in the same group. There is a possibility of being caught up, but it may not be much. Among them, there are 5 teams in Group L of which Croatia belongs. The Czech Republic and the Faroe Islands, currently ranked 2nd and 3rd, both have one more game and only one round left. The goal difference of the Grid Army with two games left is 15 more than them, which is almost equal to qualifying. Next month's competition is just a formality. The Netherlands will have a direct confrontation with No. 2 Poland in the next round. If they win, they will advance. If they lose, they will definitely still be first in the group. After all, they currently have a goal difference of 13 goals. A similar situation exists for France. In the next round, they will also face No. 2 (Ukraine), but the goal difference of the Gallic Rooster is only 5 goals.

Switzerland, Spain and Norway will only face the second place in their respective groups (Kosovo, Turkey, Italy) in the last round of the group, so the situation may change next month. However, one thing these three teams have in common is that they all have a huge goal difference advantage, at least 10 goals. Norway even has 16 more goals than Italy. So as long as there are no big surprises, the top three teams in these three groups should be able to enter the United States, Canada and Mexico.

The remaining four groups are ranked first. They don’t have much advantage in terms of points, but the specific situations are quite different. For example, Belgium, which is only 1 point ahead of North Macedonia, actually has 1 game less than its opponents. The remaining opponents are Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein, two weak teams, and they are at least 90% certain to advance. Although Austria leads Bosnia and Herzegovina by 2 points, both teams have 2 games left and will meet in Vienna in the final round. Then Germany and Slovakia in Group A, and Denmark and Scotland in Group C all have the same points, and they will all have direct conversations in the final round. It remains to be seen who will win.

According to the rules, the second place in the 12 groups can qualify for the play-offs. There will be 16 teams participating in this European play-off, and the remaining 4 places will be determined based on the results of the UEFA Nations League last season. The latter is a bit complicated to estimate, and there is even a strange phenomenon that San Marino, the bottom team in Group H, has a better chance of entering the play-offs if it loses more miserably. However, we can be sure at present that a bottom team like Sweden with only 1 point in 4 games is entirely possible to play in the play-offs through the "UEFA Nations League path". The play-offs will divide the 16 teams into 4 regions. The 4 teams in each region will directly compete in a single semi-final to determine the outcome. The winner of the 4 finals will qualify for the United States, Canada and Mexico. The group draw will be held in November this year, and the play-offs will be held in late March next year.

Concacaf and the Caribbean

There are only 8 months left before the World Cup. In fact, the direct quotas for many continents have been fully determined, including South America, Asia, Africa and Oceania. Only Europe and Concacaf will have two rounds of group matches in November this year. After the three major powers of the United States, Canada and Mexico have withdrawn from the qualifiers as hosts, Central and North America and the Caribbean are showing a chaotic scene. In the third stage of the group stage, there is currently no team that is confident of advancing to the main draw. The gap between the top two and even the top three of the three groups is relatively small, making it difficult to draw conclusions in advance. It is worth mentioning here that the Curacao team where Chen Dayi (Zeng Yi Zhongtahi) officially started playing this year is currently ranked second in Group B with 8 points from 4 games, 1 point behind leader Jamaica, and has great hope of entering the United States, Canada and Mexico - although the former Manchester United midfielder of Chinese descent is currently unable to play due to injury.

According to the rules, the first place in the three groups will be directly qualified, and the two best second places will play in the cross-continental play-offs.

Cross-continental play-offs

The cross-continental play-offs will be the final stage of this World Cup preliminaries and are scheduled to be held in March next year, roughly at the same time as the European World Cup preliminaries play-offs. The competition format is for a total of 6 teams to participate, divided into two zones. According to the FIFA rankings, two "non-seeded teams" in each region will win a single game first, and the winner will then compete with the seeded team in the finals, and finally a total of 2 promotion places will be obtained.

There are currently two teams confirmed to participate in the intercontinental play-offs, namely No. 7 Bolivia in South America and No. 2 New Caledonia in Oceania. The remaining four teams will come from Africa (Team 1), Asia (Team 1) and Central and North America (Team 2). The two continents of Asia and Africa have also entered the "preparatory stage" of the inter-continental play-offs. In November this year, the UAE will compete with Iraq in a two-round Asian play-off, with the winner qualifying for the "Cross-Continental Brawl".

The African region will be a small semi-finals tournament, with participating teams including Gabon, Democratic Congo, Cameroon and Nigeria. The semi-final matchup will be determined based on the FIFA rankings announced on October 23 this year, and the games will be a decisive victory. In other words, only one of the prestigious African Lions and African Eagles, as well as Gabon led by Aubameyang and Democratic Congo, which Wan-Bissaka just joined, can "survive until next year.".

Advanced teams

Finally, let’s review the confirmed seats:

Host (North and Central America): United States, Mexico, Canada

Asia: Japan, Iran, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar

Africa: Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Cape Verde, Morocco, Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Tunisia, Ghana

South America: Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia, Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay

Oceania: New Zealand

Europe: England