Boring and boring, two keywords are enough to summarize the Premier League in 2024-25

Born and boring, two keywords are enough to summarize the Premier League in 2024-25, a season that is about to end in a lack of dramatic dullness.

Don't believe it? On April 27, with four rounds left in the league, the major suspense at both ends of the standings had already been settled. Liverpool secured the championship in four rounds ahead of schedule. Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich all rebuilt. For the first time in Premier League history, all relegation quotas were announced to be confirmed 4 rounds in advance.

Has the "First League" become even more dull? This is one. The Manchester City Derby in early April was particularly lacking. Behind a match between the two sides, the expected goals of both sides were even lower than 1!

Manchester United legend Gary Neville, who has always been outspoken, angrily scolded after the game, saying that this was a "match like a human-machine". The coaches of both sides are overly addicted to the game pair on the tactical board, which has inhibited the players' individual performance. However, is this criticism an impromptu commentary against a disappointing focus battle or a common situation throughout the league?

The most criticized thing about modern football is its increasingly rigid control and slower pace. The following figure shows the average speed of Premier League teams pushing in the frontcourt and the number of passes per round. This season is the slowest conversion pace and the most slow passes since statistics have been made.

But the number of passes is not everything. There are more passes per round in the 2013-14 season, but the scene is much more exciting than it is now. It was one of the most thrilling seasons in Premier League history: the fierce firepower of champion Manchester City and runner-up Liverpool both broke through the 100-ball mark; third-place Chelsea was only 4 points away from the top.

Perhaps the type of pass is criticized, not the number of passes. No matter how harsh critics are, they will not say that with their eyes open, Dembele's goal to break through Arsenal in the Champions League was not wonderful: 26 consecutive passes were completed in one go, Dembele scored and lifted the heavy lifting. In front of the art master Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain showed off its smooth flow.

However, frustrated that such scenes have become increasingly rare in the Premier League. Even the bloody battle like the Manchester City Derby is full of safe but useless short passes in the backcourt, rather than a bold threatening ball that can break through the defense. Compared with the 2010-11 season, the proportion of forward passes by Premier League teams has dropped by 10 percentage points (42%→32%).

sounds bad, but the reduction in forward passes is partly due to the demise of long passes, a primitive style that is out of place with modern football. The teams coached by Sean Dyche — whether Burnley or Everton — tend to have the most forward passes in the league, but most of them are goalless big-footed clearances.

doubts about this extensive tactic have long existed. The late former Nottingham Forest coach Brian Clough once said: "If God wants us to play in the clouds, he will plant grass in the sky."

Despite the reduction in the number of passes in the frontcourt, the proportion of passes initiated by the team in the defensive three zones has been barely changed over the past six seasons.

So the more important criticism is not about playing style, but about serious homogeneity. Former England coach Sam Allardyce pointed out in 2021 that today's Premier League "everyone wants to play in the same way." This is not worthy of advocacy, because "the best leagues in the world should accommodate different systems and different ways of playing."

Manchester City coach Guardiola needs to be responsible for this. His ball-based style has been a huge success, which has naturally inspired many of his peers to follow suit.

As Guardiola's most proud disciple Messi said: "Guardiola comes from another world. He is different and can see things that others cannot see. He changed football and hurt football because people want to imitate our Barcelona playing football."

In history, it is not new to a coach leading the tactical revolution. Before Mourinho came to Stamford Bridge, the 442 formation was a common way of playing for Premier League teams for thousands of years. After Mourinho led Chelsea to win the first league championship, the 433/451 formation he brought became a temporary trend, while the 442 was labeled as "outdated" and "refractory" and was thrown into the pile of history. The twenty years after the arrival of the "madman" are also the golden age of blooming in the history of Premier League tactics. In the first decade of the 21st century, Mourinho's philosophy was the Premier League tactical vane. Similar to now, the behavior of the whole league in scrambling to master Mourinho has also aroused public anger. Irish international Tony Cascarino, who once fought at Chelsea, wrote in the media: "I didn't expect so many Premier League head coaches to become victims of the 451 formation epidemic!"

Although the winning concept has a popular trend, tactical diversity is still a symbol of the Premier League. The scatter plot below shows the style of all teams since the 2018-19 season, revealing that the Premier League is still inclusive, with a complete two extremes from Nottingham Forest to Manchester City. The overall tactical evolution trend of the Premier League is moving towards a more focus on not losing the ball - nearly half of the teams (9 teams) this season have set the slowest conversion rate since the 2018-19 season. But there are also those who stick to the direct vertical offensive style, such as the two dark horses this season, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth.

Guardiola's Manchester City may affect other teams in detail, but it is still unique in itself. When talking about the introductory fullback, Tottenham coach Postkoglu joked that he was "just imitating Guardiola." Arsenal head coach Arteta defended stubbornly that he "never copied and pasted" anything from Manchester City's mentor.

The following figure shows the average position of the Premier League teams in the offensive organization stage. Although some teams have similarities with Manchester City, the specific development methods are still very different.. Xuercele asked the defense line to maintain an extremely high position while covering the width; Yilaura instructed the four-man in the frontcourt to continuously change positions flexibly to maximize the use of the field space. Liverpool emphasized the stability of the three midfielders, while Manchester City did not hesitate to line up three central defenders to keep the formation narrow and compact. But only Manchester City emphasizes extreme structure, which is something that most teams cannot reach.

Although the styles of each team tend to be similar, this does not kill the ornamentality of the game. Just last season, Neville praised the Premier League team for "always actively thinking." He also said: "The exciting entertainment makes the entire league better!" The number of goals scored is the ultimate measure of the game. The number of Premier League goals scored in the past two seasons has set a new high in the league's 33 years since its establishment: the average number of goals scored more than 3 in the 2023-24 season, and this season is only slightly lower than this number. This is the first time that England's top league has seen such a massive goal since the 1960s.

"Recalling 20 years ago, the Premier League was extremely ugly." Neville said last year, "Every team is thinking about: I can't score goals, so you don't think about scoring." That period also coincided with the bottom of the Premier League's goals.

In the 2006-07 season, Chelsea's iron waist Essin's heavy shot to break the Arsenal goal also became a footnote to recall an era. Players seem to stop shooting from a distance anymore, which is also a common criticism. The proportion of shots outside the penalty area has dropped from 38% in the 2018-19 season to 32% this season, but the number of goals generated by long shots is basically stable. The players did not stop trying long shots, but were more cautious when making decisions. As Brentford coach Thomas Frank described: "It is not a good idea to force a forward shot from outside the penalty area when you lose balance." The Champions League semi-finals between Inter Milan and Barcelona are the benchmark masterpiece of modern football. From Yamal's genius dribbling breakthrough to Archerby's countdown to the 180-minute showdown is full of unpredictability and creativity, full of skills and talent.

This is a scene that I can't see in the Premier League this season, and the whole season has been spent in a dull and dull manner. Of course, under the overall boredom, some games were particularly exciting: for example, in the 34th round, Manchester United lost to Brentford 3-4, and Mount scored the first record for the Red Devils in the 14th minute, but he was unable to take away the victory for the team within 90 minutes. Manchester United's defeat also means that 20 teams have all lost the game while leading the way this season, which has only happened three times in previous history.

Not every season will be filled with the thrilling thrill of "9320 Moment", but unknown is still the core highlight of the Premier League, although it is really boring.