7.13 The grudge continues? Chelsea and Paris are facing each other

Core combat power comparison

forward line and defense line

Paris forward dominance: Dembele (22 goals in 18 games after renovating the center) is the core, and is paired with Kvaratschlia (12 goals and 10 assists in 25 games) and Balcola (8 goals and 6 assists in 20 games). The three players took charge of 65% of the team's goals. The ground penetration score accounts for 67% (only 3.2 passes per game create opportunities), directly suppressing Chelsea's old defense line

Chelsea's offense is weak: Jackson (3 goals in 12 games) and Muderick (1 goal in 15 games) are inefficient, forcing Palmer to frequently retreat to respond, resulting in disconnection of the front line. The cross scores on the wing are only 15% (22% on the Premier League average), and the width is insufficient to use

defense line gap: Paris combination Skriniard + Marginhos has the advantage in speed and shots, goalkeeper Donaluma's save success rate is 82%; Chelsea 39-year-old Thiago Silva turns slowly, James is in doubt about his injury and lacks horizontal coverage.

Midfield game

Chelsea's three giants (285 million euros): Palmer (120 million), Kessetdo (90 million), and Enzo (75 million) have the advantage in value, but their functions overlap. Kesédo's injury recovery is doubtful (sprayed ankle in the semi-finals). If he is absent, he will weaken the interception hardness of the midfield

Paris Iron Triangle (200 million euros): Vitinia (80 million) + Joao Neves (80 million) + Fabian (40 million) has delicate skills and balanced offense and defense. He averaged 12.3 times per game, and his control of the ball control rhythm is stronger 46. Former Chelsea legend Mikel bluntly said: "Only Kesedo may be among the starting point of Paris

tactical system and potential breakthrough points

Paris's "pseudo No. 9" killing moves

Enrique through midfield transfers + full-backs withdrawal to tear the defense line, abandoned traditional crosses, and focused on ground penetration. In the semi-finals, against Real Madrid's ball possession rate of 68% + 17 shots, Chelsea may repeat the same mistakes if they retreat deeply

Chelsea's survival strategy Midfield strangling: Kesedo needs to play healthy to suppress Vitinia, supplemented by Palmer's long pass counterattack (such as Jackson's sneak attack Success)

Formation swing risk: Maresca switched between 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1, causing the player's position to be blurred and the offense and defense conversion error rate increased

New aid variable: Pedri scored twice in the semi-finals and may become a surprise, but midfield support is required 5

Environmental and psychological variables

Venue climate New York Metropolitan Life Stadium mixed turf balls are fast, which is conducive to Paris's rapid transmission; Chelsea's long pass accuracy may decrease

Temperature 0℃: Paris players (such as Skriniar) is more adapted to the low temperature. Chelsea needs additional warm-up to prevent strains, and physical strength has hidden dangers.

Morale comparison

Paris has a high-profile declaration before the game to "win the Club World Cup", and the team's three-time champion is full of momentum; some of Chelsea's main players are worried about the four pressures in the league, and their mentality is conservative

Winning and Loss Deduction and Score Prediction

Paris controls the situation (probability 65%):

High-level pressing forces Chelsea to make a mistake, Dembele's fulcrum + Kvaratskhelia breaks through to lead the offense. If you score in the first half, Barr will be in the second half Cora's substitute expands its advantages → first choose 3-1

Chelsea's upset conditions (probability 35%)

shrinking the defense line + Palmer's accurate long pass counterattack first, but Paris may still reverse through set pieces (Skriniar) or long shot (Vitinia) → second choose 2-0

summary

Paris has balanced three lines and mature tactics, and ground penetration specializes in the elderly defense line; if Chelsea wants to counterattack, Kesedo needs to lock the midfield + Palmer's magical performance, but the probability is low. It is optimistic that Paris will resolve the battle within 90 minutes,