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US media updates the probability of winning the championship: The Celtics have fallen to fifth, the Timberwolves soared, reaching 55% first
11:28am, 18 May 2025【Basketball】
On May 16, with the Warriors being eliminated, only six teams in the league are still fighting for the championship. After today's Thunder and Nuggets game, the Nuggets may also be eliminated. However, after all, it is on the Denver Plateau, so many fans are optimistic that the Nuggets can drag into the tiebreak. Before the Nuggets and Thunder game starts, the US media NBA Championship updated the latest chance of winning the championship. Let's take a look together. Is it reasonable?
The sixth Nuggets
The Nuggets' chance of winning is only 5%. Although they are only 2-3 behind the Thunder, friends who have watched the Nuggets' last two games know that the Nuggets have run out of ammunition and food. They can still compete with the Thunder in the first three quarters, but there are few rotation players in the entire team, which also puts their physical fitness to the limit. Therefore, they are in a very poor state in the fourth quarter and are eventually reversed by the Thunder.
The gap between the two teams is still very obvious. The Nuggets were able to win two games before. To be honest, if Gordon had not been lucky enough to hit those two three-pointers, the Nuggets might have lost. They both won. They had a hard time winning, but the Thunder had beaten them 40 points before. Jokic was indeed better than Alexander, but in terms of lineup configuration and physical fitness, the Nuggets were obviously not as good as the Thunder.
The fifth Celtics are considered to have a 6% chance of winning the championship. To be honest, if I were asked to rank, I would rank the Celtics sixth, lower than the Nuggets. Their team boss Tatum is injured and is reimbursed for the season. Although I won the Knicks yesterday, I think it was the referee who made the Knicks core trouble in advance. In the end, the Celtics played the basketball they were familiar with and won the victory.
Of course, it is not ruled out that the Knicks may let go. After all, facing the Celtics of this level, they can let go back to the home court to harvest. You should know that the price of the Knicks at home is quite terrifying. The Celtics are not only missing Tatum, but also Porzingis and Holiday are in poor condition. It is obviously unrealistic to rely solely on the two core cores of Brown and White to attack the championship. Although the fourth Pacers have been questioned, they eventually eliminated their opponents, and they swept 4-1 in each round, but they still did not receive absolute recognition. The Pacers are considered to have a chance of winning the championship of 11%. To be honest, the Pacers' lineup configuration and the performance of the players are all in line with the level of rushing out of the East. Perhaps their star is not a first-tier star in the league, but his coach is definitely a first-tier coach.
In the playoffs, everyone is reducing the rotation, but the Pacers are still rotating with multiple players. They do this to make the whole game press and consume the opponent's core physical fitness. Carlisle's routine is too deep. The Pacers will not be affected by the offense because of the poor performance of the team's core. They have a good offensive system, and the team's five-for-one system is not inferior to the firepower of the five-for-one during the Celtics.
The third Knicks,
The Knicks are now 12%. After getting the match point against the Celtics, the Knicks have received more recognition. You should know that they got the match point. Tatum also played in the game at that time. The Knicks built their current team lineup in order to fight against the Celtics in the offseason. They will face the Pacers when they crossed the Celtics.
The Knicks were eliminated by the Pacers last season. Of course, the main reason for their elimination was injury. But to be honest, even if the Knicks are healthy, I think they are not easy to play against the Pacers. The Pacers may rely on their physical fitness and lineup rotation to defeat the Knicks. Although they have two top stars Brunson and Towns, Thibodeau's way of using people is always a hidden danger.
The Second Timberwolves
After defeating the Lakers and Warriors, the Timberwolves finally received more recognition. Their current probability of winning the championship soared to 14%. The Timberwolves have now entered the Western Conference Finals one step ahead of the Thunder and the Nuggets, and both rounds were swept by gentlemen. It can be said that their physical fitness and condition are excellent now. Even if the Thunder enters the Western Conference Finals, they dare not say that they can win them firmly.
The Timberwolves can still play dominant this season. I think Edwards is very important. He is only 23 years old. As a result, he plays calmer than many veteran stars in the playoffs. He knows when to do what, and the stability on the offensive end is also very good. Randall played as a top second-in-command in the playoffs. The Timberwolves have given everyone too many surprises this season.
No. 1 Thunder
The Thunder have generally not fallen out of the top two since the playoffs. Even though they were lagging behind the Nuggets 1-2 in the past, they still ranked first in the championship probability. Their probability of winning is considered to be as high as 55%. The Thunder has super star Alexander and a group of outstanding young talents. They also have a five-for-one system that is as outstanding as the Pacers, and also has a double tower, with rich lineup configuration.
The biggest shortcoming of the Thunder is that they do not have qualified power forwards, so they will suffer losses when facing Aaron Gordon. If they make it to the Western Conference Finals, they probably can't defend against Randall. They still have one problem, which is lack of experience, but these problems are fewer than those of other teams. Having said that, what do you want to say about these 6 teams? Welcome to leave a message for discussion.
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