The storm of the Clippers and Leonard s Yin-Yang contract: The suspense of the alliance s punishment is to be resolved

On September 17, John Hollinger, a well-known NBA expert, deeply interpreted the Yin-Yang contract case that Leonard and the Clippers were deeply involved. If the NBA finally determines that they violate the rules, where will the Clippers and Leonard go, and become the focus of attention in the basketball world.

Recently, more and more circumstantial evidence points to the Clippers, who are suspected of providing Leonard with a "named endorsement contract" through the bankrupt "Aspiration" company to bypass salary restrictions and blatantly evade the salary cap. However, as of now, there is no conclusive evidence directly related to Clippers boss Ballmer and minority shareholder Dennis Wang's investment in Aspiration and the company's payment to Leonard, although the investment time and amount are full of doubts. The alliance investigation is still ongoing, and without ironclad evidence like Ballmer's transfer notes to Aspiration, alliance lawyers face challenges to make the case convincing enough.

However, the possibility of "hard punishment" cannot be ignored. If the alliance can convince independent arbitrators to determine that the Clippers pass an "unauthorized agreement" to evade the salary cap, the Clippers will be severely fined according to Chapter 13 of the Labor and Capital Agreement. Once the violation is confirmed, the league president's office will definitely impose strict penalties, after all, the bosses of the other 29 teams will also have this requirement. There are rumors that the league may have been lighter because other teams may have had similar operations. Hollinger clearly denied it with his seven years of experience in the league. The nature of this incident is serious and cannot be compared with conventional violations. Almost all league executives believe that the parties involved should be severely punished. Last week, NBA President Xiao Hua said he had "extremely extensive power" in such cases, mentioning three types of punishment measures: "fine, deprivation of draft picks, and ban", which are stipulated in Chapter 13 of the Labor Agreement. Let’s take a look at the specific “Punishment Menu” and its impact.

The Clippers can be fined up to $7.5 million and fined up to $350,000 for Leonard. But for Ballmer, the $1 million fine is as slight as parking fees, and the $7.5 million fine also accounts for less than 4% of the team's total salary, and the penalty seems to be limited.

For the dismissal of draft picks, refer to the 1999 "Joe-Smith Case", when the Timberwolves were deprived of five first-round picks for salary cap evasion, and the violations accused of this time the Clippers were even more serious. The Clippers currently have 5 first-round picks that can be punished (the first-round picks in 2030, 2031, 2032, and the draft pick swap rights in 2027, 2029), and 2 untraded second-round picks (2031, 2032) and some second-round picks for the Grizzlies in 2026 (the Clippers can get when the signing positions are 31-42). If the subsequent compliance is followed, the league may restore some draft picks in several years. Moreover, the draft pick swap partners in 2027 and 2029 will not be affected, but the handling of signing positions will change under relevant rules.

Balmer or other management personnel may be suspended for up to one year and shall be fined up to $1 million per person. If Ballmer is suspended, the Clippers will be embarrassed when hosting the NBA All-Star Game in 2026, but there is a precedent. The Timberwolves owner was suspended for 9 months in the "Joe-Smith Case".

The penalty for invalidating Leonard's contract is the most critical and difficult. For the Clippers, Leonard will earn $50 million next season. Although he is a top player when he is healthy, he is often absent due to injuries. The Clippers will have maximum salary space in the summer of 2026, and may even poach LeBron-James from the Lakers. At the same time, the labor-management agreement did not specify whether it could "not only invalidate the contract, but also include US$50 million in the annual salary cap of 2027". This "double punishment" is unfair and has a low possibility. In addition, whether Leonard's money received from Aspiration can be included in the 2026-27 season salary cap can not only avoid controversy but also prevent the Clippers from getting huge salary space, but also respond to other bosses' demands that the Clippers should pay luxury tax on the payment.

But the biggest problem with invalidating contracts is disrupting the free agent market. As training camp approaches, the salary space of each team is tight, and the league survey may take weeks or even months, and the season may be halfway through when there is a conclusion. If Leonard suddenly becomes a free agent and is banned from renewing his contract with the Clippers during the season, if he joins the Lakers or other teams at a minimum salary, it will seriously impact the league's competitive balance and playoff spot competition. The only compromise plan "Suspension of Leonard throughout the season" is too severe and may also cause conflicts with the players' union. Therefore, the league is more likely to delay investigation and punishment until after the regular season is over next spring, the contract is invalidated, or retained, and other means such as counting Aspiration payments into the salary cap, etc., to severely punish the Clippers.

In short, if the Clippers' salary cap evasion is confirmed, "deprived of multiple draft picks, fines, ban on Ballmer for 1 year" is likely to be implemented, and Leonard's contract fate is full of suspense, and the league needs to weigh the trade-offs between setting precedents and maintaining league stability.