New situation of NBA championship competition? Who can win the championship?

With the fierce battle in the first round of the NBA playoffs, ESPN updated the probability list of each team's championship today, and the competitive landscape of the Western Conference once again sparked heated discussion.

Lakers jumped fourth with odds of +1600 (probability is about 5.9%), while the Clippers climbed to sixth with +2000 (probability is about 4.8%).

Thunder ranked first with an overwhelming 46.9%, while Celtics (14.8%) and Cavaliers (19.4%) ranked second and third. Behind this ranking change is the comprehensive game between the team's recent performance, lineup adjustment and playoff prospects.

1. Lakers: From lows to counterattacks, the "chemical reaction" of Doncic + James became the key

At the beginning of the season, the Lakers were once detested due to their inside shortcomings and James' age problems. ESPN once predicted that its probability of winning was only 0.7% (data on April 24).

However, after the All-Star game, the Lakers rebounded strongly. With the "dual-core drive" of Doncic and James, the team's offensive and defensive efficiency has been significantly improved.

Doncic's franchise effect: Doncic's average of 28.2 points + 7.7 assists per game complements James. The two of them contributed 52.6 points, 15.9 rebounds and 15.7 assists, becoming the most threatening ball-holding combination in the league.

Defensive transformation: The Lakers have recently recovered their top defensive performance, and their defensive efficiency once ranked first in the league, especially in limiting their opponents' second offense and key goal winning rate (78%).

Trade reinforcement: In order to make up for the inside defects, the Lakers obtained Nets center Sharp through trades. His blue-collar attribute of averaging 8.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game effectively alleviated the pressure of protecting the frame and became a factor in the playoffs.

Although ESPN still has doubts about its inside depth and James' physical fitness, if the Lakers continue their current state, they are expected to break the label of "playoff team" and launch an attack on the championship.

2. Clippers: Healthy Leonard + tactical upgrade, from the "Lotto Zone" to the championship dark horse

The Clippers' counterattack is the biggest surprise of this season. At the beginning of the season, Leonard was absent indefinitely due to a knee injury, ESPN once tied with the Rockets and the Spurs to the bottom (+10,000). However, with Leonard's return and Harden's condition recovering, the Clippers' record has risen sharply.

Dual-core driver: Leonard averaged 27.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game after his comeback, and his dominance on both offense and defense remained the same; Harden activated the entire team with his top organizational ability, and his scoring explosive power was significant at critical moments.

Defensive transformation: The joining of assistant coach Van Gundy has made the Clippers' defensive efficiency jump to second in the league (107.3 points a game), especially limiting the opponent's pick-and-roll efficiency (0.91 points per round) ranks among the top.

Potential risk: Leonard's health remains the biggest variable. If his playoffs are injured again, the Clippers' competitiveness will decline sharply.

In addition, the number four shortcoming (such as when playing against the Thunder and Celtics) may limit its upper limit.

Although the latest probability shows that the Clippers are only ranked sixth, their "health is the peak" traits are still regarded by experts as the most dangerous "second half team" in the West.

3. Thunder: The Youth Army Ruling Alliance, the double blessing of data and "metaphysics"

Thunder leads the way with a 46.9% chance of winning the championship, and its rise is by no means accidental.

Off and defense integration: Thunder's defense efficiency first in the league (102.9 points lost in 100 rounds), Alexander averaged 33 points per game and scored 50.9 points in the penalty area on the offensive end, and combined with the outside three-point firepower, forming a three-dimensional offensive.

Historical data: Average net win score of 12.58 points per game is expected to break the Lakers record in the 1971-72 season, and the "metaphysics" of the top five net wins in history, which adds more confidence to the "metaphysics" of the teams who won the championship in the end.

Hidden dangers emerge: problems such as insufficient playoff experience and Alexander's excessive reliance on free throws were exposed in the first round. If the opponent restricts his holding of the ball in a targeted manner, the Thunder may face hard battles.

4. Celtics & Cavaliers: The "two heroes compete for the hegemony" in the East

Celtics (14.8%): The defending champion double Tanhua continues to evolve, Porzingis returns to make up for the shortcomings in the inside, but Horford's aging and Holiday's fluctuations in its state may become hidden dangers.

Cavaliers (19.4%): The league's first offensive efficiency (122.1) and the four-star lineup have strong paper strength, but Mitchell's lack of stability and Garland's defensive weakness restrict his tough battle performance.

5. Controversy and suspense: Can the Warriors and the Nuggets change their fate against the will of heaven?

Warriors (2.5%): The combination of Curry + Butler is still threatening, but the aging lineup and inside defense issues have caused him to be in a tough battle in the first round. After being forced to tie the Rockets 1-1, the prospects are dark.

Nuggets (2.4%): Jokic's MVP performance cannot conceal his substitute firepower. If he cannot establish a defensive system, he may stop in the second round again.

Conclusion: Health, luck and on-the-spot game determine the final title of

The 2025 season is not only a competition of superstar quality, but also a competition of lineup depth and risk resistance.

The counterattack between the Lakers and the Clippers confirms the truth that "there is no weak team in the playoffs", and the Thunder's dominance needs to be tested by tough battles.

As the trading window is closed and the playoffs deepens, the final championship is still full of variables. The only thing that is certain is that this will be the most suspenseful and the most competitive season in recent years!